Shengnong Development (002299): 18-year performance surges, 19-year pig price rises expected, chicken replacement supports demand in second half

Shengnong Development (002299): 18-year performance surges, 19-year pig price rises expected, chicken replacement supports demand in second half

On the evening of March 26, the company released its 2018 annual report.

In 2018, the company’s operating income was 115.

470,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.

67%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 15.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 377 in ten years.

79%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in place of non-recurring gains and losses was 14.

800,000 yuan, an increase of 1511 in ten years.

49%; 10 bonuses are distributed for every 10 shares.

00 yuan (including tax).

The company’s performance is in line with our expectations.

Our analysis and judgment are that chicken prices are rising quarter by quarter, driving up the company’s performance and growing. In 2018, the domestic supply and demand relationship of the white feather broiler market continued to improve, the supply gradually became scarce, and the demand gradually increased.Climbing, so the sales price of the company’s products exceeded expectations, and the overall performance increased significantly.

According to Wind data, as of December 28, 2018, the average price of white feather broilers in the main producing area was 10.

11 yuan / kg, close to the highest price of 10.

71 yuan / kg, a price increase of 30 from the beginning of the year.

96%.

We estimate that the average price of white feather broilers in the main domestic production areas of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in 2018 is 7.

60/7.

86/8.

70/9.

80 yuan / kg, the price rise trend is obvious, the gap is wide.

By quarter, 2018Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 company’s operating income was 23 respectively.

51/27.

18/29.

86/34.

91 ppm, with a growth rate of 3 each year.

43% / 4.

49% / 19.

62% / 25.

25%; net profit attributable to mothers is 1.

27/2.

08/4.

69/7.

10,000 yuan, the annual growth rate was 91.

16% / 376.

27% / 254.

96% / 863.

51%.

In terms of business, the company’s poultry breeding business had an operating income of 81 in 2018.35 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

57%; gross 杭州桑拿网 margin is 18.

85%, up 12 every year.

36 tablets; sales volume is 87.

Initially, it was reduced by 3 per year.

61%.

Food processing business revenue was 28.

900,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.

37%; gross margin is 24.

06%, down by 1 every year.

29pct; sales volume is 14.

46 for the first time, growing 32 each year.

81%, mainly from KFC, McDonald’s, Burger King and other catering channels increased by 2.

1, agricultural approval and industrial channels increased by 0.

6 samples, the supermarket channel increased by 0.

5 Initially, export channels increased by 0.

3 initial.

Introduced quantity continues to be low, and the highest price of commercial chicken seedlings is expected to be the highest. According to Boya and Hexun data, the introduction amount of ancestral chickens in 2018 was about 900,000 sets, exceeding the introduction amount in 2017, basically reaching the market supply-demand balance point.

Considering that the introduction of ancestral chickens in 2018 began to increase significantly in October and pushed back 14 months, we expect that the increase in the supply of commercial chicks will be reflected at least in early 2020. The price of commercial chicks in 2019 is expected to increaseRun high.

The management efficiency has been improved, and the company’s ongoing technical reforms and upgrades with effective cost control and effective management have been effectively verified. The key production indicators have been improved to varying degrees, the management efficiency has been greatly improved, costs and expenses have been effectively controlled, and overall benefits have been improved.

In terms of profitability, the company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 20.

53%, an increase of 9 per year.

65pct; net interest rate is 13.

43%, an increase of 10 per year.

81 points.

In terms of quarters, 2018Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 companies’ gross profit margins were 13 respectively.

14% / 14.

50% / 23.

23% / 27.

88%, the net interest rate is 5.

37% / 7.

53% / 16.

32% / 21.

00%.

In terms of period expenses, the company’s selling expenses in 2018 were 3.

56 ppm, a ten-year increase4.

47%, selling expenses 3.

08%, reducing by 0 every year.

27pct; management fee is 1.

56 ppm, an increase of ten years.35%, overhead costs 1.

35%; finance costs are 2.

14 ‰, a decrease of 8 per year.

34%, financial expenses1.

85%, a reduction of 0 every year.

45 points.

Brands and geographical advantages are gradually integrated. Barriers to competition The company has established a market image with obvious product quality advantages, large scale and stable supply in the industry. It has established a long-term and stable cooperative relationship with a series of customers and maintained a stable market share.

In 2017, the company completed the reorganization of Shengnong Food, a deep-processing enterprise. The two parties coordinated to promote marketing, market development and brand promotion, further developed the customer, and further enhanced the brand advantage.

In terms of customers, the company is a long-term partner of KFC, McDonald’s, and Dirks, and is an important supplier of Shuanghui, Jinluo, Wife, Zhengxin Food, Burger King, and Yasui Food.

In addition, the company is located at the junction of Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Fujian provinces, between the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta with large consumer markets, about 300 kilometers from Fuzhou, Nanchang and other places, about 500 kilometers from Xiamen, Hangzhou, and Quanzhou, and from Shanghai,Guangzhou, Wuhan and other cities do not exceed 1000 kilometers. The strong market radiation ability of the products is conducive to the company’s product transportation and sales.

Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s operating income to be 130 in 2019-2020.

8.3 billion and 145.

21 ppm, an increase of 13 per year.

30% and 10.

99%; net profit is 16.

82 ppm and 15.

08 million yuan, with annual growth of 16 yuan.

24% and -10.

33%, EPS is 1.

36 yuan / share and 1.

22 yuan / share, the company’s total market value is 32 billion, and the corresponding P / E is 19 respectively.

0x and 21.

2x, maintaining the “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: chicken meat price fluctuation risk; raw material price fluctuation risk; risk of epidemic disease.